Phillies in Strong Position for NL Wild Card Despite Loss
Despite an 8-0 On Tuesday, the Philadelphia Phillies remain in a favorable spot to secure a National League Wild Card playoff berth. They hold a 1.5 game lead for the top NL Wild Card position.
Playoff Odds Remain High After Defeat
Per FanGraphs’ latest MLB odds, the Phillies have a 96.5% probability of making the postseason. That ranks 4th among National League teams.
Outstanding Record Against Tough Schedule
The Phillies are 76-62, projected to finish around 88-74 by FanGraphs. While a 12-12 record to conclude 2022 may seem mediocre, Philadelphia has faced the most challenging strength of schedule in MLB this season (.534 opponent winning percentage).
Top Wild Card Within Reach
By going .500 in remaining games, the Phillies are forecasted to clinch the top NL Wild Card spot. However, it should be a tight race, with the Chicago Cubs projected for 87 wins and the second Wild Card.
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Vastly Different Position Than 2021
Interestingly, the Phillies had the same 76-62 record at this stage last season. However, they were 3rd in the NL Wild Card race, 10.5 games back of the top spot and just 3.5 games up on the playoff cutoff.
Last season, Philadelphia defied expectations by grabbing the 6th and final NL playoff seed despite three 100-win teams. FanGraphs gives them just a 5.7% chance at the World Series 2022.
Braves Big Favorites in NL East
The Phillies’ playoff road would be easier by winning the NL East. But the defending champion Atlanta Braves have a 100% likelihood of repeating as division champs, per FanGraphs.
The Braves are one of only three MLB teams (along with the Dodgers and Orioles) projected at 100% for the postseason. Atlanta also has the best World Series odds at 28.9%.
Reason for Confidence in September
The numbers suggest Phillies fans can feel confident about reaching the playoffs. As last year showed, anything can happen once they get there. But first, Philadelphia needs to close out the regular season strong.
Note: All stats and projections current as of September 5.”